Market Forecast: Trends to Watch | Valerie Fitzgerald | Beverly Hills & West L.A. Real Estate
February 5th, 2010 Categories: Real Estate Tools
FROM REAL ESTATE MAGAZINE
Jobs, foreclosures, option-adjustable-rate mortgages, and interest rates are among the top trends that could dictate what will happen in California’s housing markets this year. Here’s what you need to know to make sense of how these trends could affect the real estate market.
1. Market Fundamentals
Three market fundamentals that turned positive in 2009 could be good indicators this year as well. First, home prices have fallen lower than replacement costs in many markets. This means a home can be bought for less than the cost to build it.
Second, home prices are “a lot more attractive” relative to rents than they have been in many years; and third, inventory of for-sale homes has “dropped very dramatically,” says Richard K. Green, director of the USC Lusk School of Real Estate in Los Angeles. That suggests some markets have stabilized, although
homes priced at more than $1 million may be an exception. “There is still a lot of pain left to come” in that segment of the market, Green warns.
2. Jobs
“Painful” describes the employment picture and the outlook for wage hikes and job security. Moreover, housing may now be less sensitive to traditional jobmoving patterns, observes Stefan Swanepoel, a real estate trends expert, author, and speaker in Aliso Viejo. Home sales that involve corporate relocations or year-end job changes may be moribund until the employment situation improves.
3. Foreclosures
Jobs are an important factor in foreclosures, though “not everyone who has lost a job has lost their house yet,” Swanepoel says. Homeowners who’ve lost a job may have had to live on lower wages or one income, or may have had to tap into their savings or retirement accounts to get by. “If they don’t get a decent job or a good job soon, I can see their houses still coming on the market in foreclosures or short sales,” he says.
Another trend to watch is that some homewners have dodged foreclosure even though they haven’t made their mortgage payments, according to Sean O’Toole, chief executive of ForeclosureRadar.com.
“We don’t have the political or societal will to foreclose on [that many] people, but nor do we have the will to bail out those homeowners who can’t afford their payments,” O’Toole says. That stalemate has slowed the pace of foreclosures, which may mean fewer opportunities for REALTORS® to list and sell those homes, he suggests.
4. Lenders and Loans
Home loans are crucial to healthy housing markets, so REALTORS® need to keep an eye on national lenders that originate loans locally, Swanepoel suggests. “As they digest the companies they’ve acquired and find out what loans they have, what loans they are servicing, and what their exposure in certain markets is, they might change their rules and terms and conditions,” he warns. Tougher requirements for loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) could have an effect on housing as well.
5. Interest Rates
Interest rates could turn out to be the ultimate wild card. How long the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low is an unanswerable question on which hangs the future of housing. The Fed’s ability to maintain low interest rates is “the greatest risk to the real estate industry right now,” says O’Toole. “If interest rates go to 8 percent, this market is over.”
6. Option-ARM Recasts
Low interest rates have taken the sting out of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), but the payment option variety is still watch-worthy because a recast to make up negative amortization can result in an enormous payment shock, Green notes. “You could set up a fairly simple example where interest rates don’t go up at all, but the payment doubles,” he says. “If that loan was originated with a 90 percent
loan-to-value ratio and you are piling up principal, you could be deeply underwater and unable to make the payment.” Aggressive loan modification programs have blunted the expected blow from option-ARM recasts, but many homeowners still owe more than their home is worth and 30-day delinquencies
have continued to climb, O’Toole observes.
That suggests more homeowners may throw in the towel. “Strategic walk-aways from negative equity and/or due to job loss are going to be a bigger issue because modification programs and low interest rates likely have taken up the slack from the reset/recast issue,” he explains.
The Valerie Fitzgerald Group specializes in luxury residential real estate in Beverly Hills, Bel Air, Brentwood, Santa Monica and Malibu. Valerie has more than 20 years of real estate experience and is known for her solid reputation in the West Los Angeles brokerage community. She’s also the author of the book published by Simon and Schuster Heart and Sold: How to Survive and Build a Recession-Proof Business. Buy it here.
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